12:00 TUESDAY – Bi-Weekly Stock Market Report #226 – 12/19/23
by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING (THE BIG PICTURE) … 6.5 (1-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-9 bullish). We have entered a bullish phase with Fed Chairman Powell acknowledging that a monetary policy shift is ahead which will lead to multiple interest rate cuts in 2024.
Powell said FOMC members I(voting g members) expect GDP growth (overall US economic growth) to slow to 1.4% in 2024, from an expected overall rate of 2.5% in 2023, with a 2024 unemployment rate of 4.1%, up from 3.7% currently. The members also expect inflation will continue to decline but may remain above its 2% target in 2024.
Investor confidence is increasing as bond market yields on 10-year Treasuries in the last 6 weeks have decreased from 4.88% to 4.04%. This is a huge swing.
All of the above suggests a bullish market ahead.
Investors should not wait until interest rate cuts materialize. Instead, they should make purchases now. It is not too late, but with the new optimism, stock prices are already increasing. You have only missed a small portion of the upcoming bullishness. Since bank and brokerage stocks benefit from lower rates, they are recovering.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances. If you would like, I’ll do a complimentary portfolio evaluation, and I’ll explain what ought to be done to improve your situation.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that period.
Learn from the Bible: Proverbs 15:22 CEV - Without good advice, everything goes wrong — it takes careful planning for things to go right. Proverbs 15:22 MSG - Refuse good advice and watch your plans fail; take good counsel and watch them succeed.
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Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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